Friday, September 28, 2012

I'm taking on Vegas this week and that's it boo!!!

5:30 central time it's not too late to drop a mini blog is it. My site was down for most of the afternoon and I thought it was because I upgraded all of my Apple gear to IOS 6 and everyone knows Apple now hates every and anything to do with Google/YouTube/Samsung but nope just a glitch. Sadly though I was invited to all you can eat BBQ in the lovely city of Wichita, KS. and let me tell you I have never had better ribs or pulled pork than I did today and that's on the Fo real boo, why sad you say, cause I'm currently lying in bed trying to recover from meat sweats.

Last week was my first losing week going 2-3, but of course I blame the replacement refs, even though they single handedly gave me one of my 2 victories with the "guess who also had money on Seattle +3.5 spread and ain't no way I'm calling that a fucking interception when I can win an extra $200" Seahawks vs. Packers game. Anyways week 4 is when I traditionally start to dominate so take note at these absolute dimes:

Bengals-1 @ Jags
The Bengals are a very good team and the Jags aren't as bad as they were originally thought to be, but a basically pick 'em game versus a playoff caliber team?!!! Remember the huge home field advantage teams had with the intimidable replacement refs are gone, so no bogus late game calls will save the Jags and honestly speaking I'm not quite comfortable with betting on a team with a QB named Blaine Gabbert.

Atlanta/Carolina over 48
I think Atlanta will put up a bunch of points against Carolina and when I mean a bunch of points I mean Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez scoring 3 touchdowns each, absolutely this has nothing to do with them being on my fantasy football teams, nope, nope!!! That and Cam Newton playing with an edge with all the criticism he endured this week look for an easy 55 point game

Tampa Bay -1.5 vs. Washington
This is probably the last week the Skins opening victory against the once again hapless 'Aints have an effect on the point settors in Vegas. The Bucs aren't t that bad and the Skins --aren't that good, so that 1.5 at home is a no brainer son, what, what!!!

Saints + 9 against the Packers
I know the Saints aren't playing well but a 2 score spread is a lot of points to give, considering that the Packers are scuffling a bit themselves. I have no idea if this game is gonna be an old school shoot out or  a battle of field goals but I do know that Drew Brees gave a huge we ain't quitting speech to the who dat nation and that's still gonna add up to a loss to the Packers unless Roger Goodell is tired of those Discount Double Check Commercials from 'Rodgers' and orders another 'Fail Mary'  play to win the game... Unlikely, Packers 27-Saints 20 so that's a win for me, a loss for the Saints, a win for the Packers, an actual loss for me cause I hate the Packers and a kinda win for the Saints who will cover the spread and prove they have some fight left in them. Got it, Good.


Friday, September 21, 2012

Triple Crown doesn't mean MVP, NFL fraud alert and of course Vegas Picks!!!

Miguel Cabrera has a legitimate chance of winning the triple crown in baseball, something that hasn't been done since Carl Yastremski did it in 1967, that's a long time. The triple crown is the hardest single season feat to accomplish in all of sports, with only 15 in the last 125+ years. Cabrera leads the league in batting avg., RBI's and only trails Josh hamilton by 1 home run for the lead in that. He is the best hitter in baseball, period. However, he is not the MVP. The Detroit Tigers has the best hitter in baseball, 1 of the ten best hitters in baseball, protecting Cabrera in Prince Fielder, an excellent lead-off hitter in Austin Jackson, the BEST pitcher in baseball and should be back to back Cy Young award winner in Justin Verlander, an excellent No. 2 pitcher in Max Scherzer and a really good closer in Jose Valverde and yet they are currently not in the playoffs, why? Because defensively they stink and Miguel Cabrera is arguably the worse defensive 3rd baseman in baseball. Remember boys and girls, that in all sports, defense wins championships and that's why the Tigers are struggling to make the playoffs.

Which is why my winner is Mike Trout, sure his numbers pale in comparison to Cabrera's, but he missed the 1st 20 games cause he was in the minors and yes the Angels are currently out of the playoffs as well, but they were down right awful until they brought Trout up, now they are right in the hunt and they have a better record than the Tigers. Now that my friends is tangible evidence of a players MVP value.

Fact: Ryan Braun is having a better season than he had in his MVP season last year
Fact: It's even more impressive considering that Prince Fielder is no longer protecting him
Fact: The Brewers are in contention this year even though they had the worse bullpen in baseball and they traded away their best pitcher.
Fact: Ryan Braun was exonerated from being accused of using performance enhancing drugs
Fact: There is no way that Ryan Braun will win this year's NL MVP. No one is more cynical in sports, than the people who vote for these kind of awards and in their minds Ryan Braun is guilty even though he was found (not proven) innocent, so congratulations Buster Posey you should edge out Andrew McCutcheon for the N.L. MVP

Chicago Bears, Denver Broncos, N.Y. Jets and yes of course the Dallas Cowboys, you are on fraud alert. It's not that you lost last week that's bothersome, only the Cowboys were favored to win and that was just marginally, it's how you lost, you all played so well in week 1 that you were considered instant contenders and then week 2 you laid a big fat egg. I suspect 2 of you will right the ship (Bears, Broncos) while the other 2 (Cowboys and Jets) will continue with 'look we're the greatest' to 'holy shit I didn't realize we had a game today' week to week style of play.

Quick Question: When was the last time USC head coach Lane Kiffin won a big game? Exactly!!!
Picking them as the number 1 team in college football was laughable to begin with and now it's just ho-hum, typical Kiffin. Alabama is the best team in college football until someone proves otherwise, that being said, Florida St. is nipping on the Tide's heels as the best teams I've seen play so far. Monte Ball stayed for another year in Wisconsin cause he was projected as a 3rd round pick, he may now try to get a 5th year added, cause his stock is plummeting faster than Groupon's (check it out Groupon sucks right now)

Randomest Thoughts:
The NFL replacement officials are so bad that I may have to put an asterisk on this season if it continues. Tony Gonzalez has the 2nd most receptions in the history of the NFL and he still trails Jerry Rice by 400!!! Jerry Rice is not the best player ever in the NFL but he is the most productive. The NBA training camp is just around the corner or as I like to call it the year where we start considering Lebron James as one of the 5 best to ever play the game and that's on the for real boo!!!

I went 3-2 last week. I Should have been 4-1, but the Broncos didn't go for the 2 point conversion and the score ended up 27-19 and I had the over of 46 and a HALF!!!
San Fancisco-7 over the Vikings ummm has anyone seen these 2 teams play yet
Bengals + 3.5 over the Skins Washington beat an overrated Saints team and lost to an OK Rams team, I expect the Bengals to win outright
Baltimore -2.5 over the Patriots Look I hate to go against Brady when he's coming off a loss, and about to play in a prime time game, but this is revenge time for the Ravens
Seattle +3.5 over the Packers I have a couple rule of thumbs when wagering on pro football, one of them is when whenever Seattle is at home and they are getting over 3.5 points I take them, ask Dallas
Patriots/Ravens u 49.5 That's a lot of points boo!!!

Friday, September 14, 2012

A Bears no-no, Week 1 props, a shot out to baseball and Vegas picks

Hey, look I'm a Lovie Smith fan, I think he's a good coach, not a great one. Great coaches has sustained excellence and can adjust on the fly and very seldom get out X'ed and O'ed. Lovie's not that guy, but his team plays hard for him and he has a sound philosophy that he believes in, but he's not Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy. McCarthy may not be great yet, but he very seldom loses cause he was out game planned.

Hey, look I'm a Jay Cutler fan, I think he's a good quarterback, not a great one. Cutler is one of only a handful of quarterbacks in the NFL that can physically make all the throws needed to be considered elite. However, his decision making is questionable and he doesn't perform well when the lights shine on the brightest stage. I think he still has the ability to be great, but right now, he's definitely no Aaron Rodgers, who not only is great, but in my opinion the best QB playing right now. So what I'm saying is that if you wanna beat a team that has a better coach and a better QB than you, absolutely you CANNOT get outplayed on special teams, now let's move on.

Peyton Manning, Robert Griffin and Adrian Peterson are my fav 3 players after week 1. 2 of which, Manning and Peterson, came back from devastating injuries last year and upon their return, looked like they never left and RGIII of course, is the rookie sensation that out gunned Drew Brees, in New Orleans, that almost never happens. Michael Vick is my least fav for the week, you can't throw that many interceptions and be fragile, one or the other homie. The NFC is so rugged this year, that I wouldn't be surprised, if of the 2 teams I had just missing the playoffs, Detroit and Dallas, one of them would make the Super Bowl (though Dallas still has a long way to go before I believe they are not incapable of implosion).  A week where Tim Tebow is not in the headlines is a good week for football.

I haven't forgotten about baseball:
He is not the best pitcher on the team. He would probably be their number 3 starter in the playoffs but still when you have a chance to win the World Series you pull out all the cards. No way the Nationals should have shut him down. It was a move that the Montreal Expos would make not a World Series contender. No way the White Sox can hold off the Detroit Tigers if they continue to only score runs off of home runs. After the Cardinals improbable surge to the playoffs last year, it would be only fitting that they collapsed this year. The Yanks may very well make the playoffs but the team as it's constituted right now, is making it's last hurrah, trust me on this boo!

I said it years ago, about baseball needing to expand their playoff teams, Bud Selig finally listened, not to me, but somebody, and now we have fantastic playoff races across the board, kudos MLB. Picking the AL manager of the year will be even harder than picking the AL Cy Young award. White Sox manager Robin Ventura, Baltimore's Buck Showalter, Tampa's Joe Madden and Oakland's Bob Melvin all deserve to win. No I don't have Bobby Valentine in the running. BTW I got my money on  Justin Verlander for the AL Cy Young.

Lastly, the best part of blogging during the football season is this little nugget:
Seattle +3.5
Houston -7.5
Pittsburgh/Jets u 41
San Franciso/Lions o 46.5


Wednesday, September 5, 2012

NFL predictions is there anything better than that

Of the 3 major sports, picking the NFL winners is the hardest to do. It's just so many variables, but luckily, I'm a genius and I laugh in the face of adversity, ha, ha, ha, see. With the help of an old Christmas Carol, I used these tools to make my 2012 football predictions

On the 1st day of the NFL regular season my true love gave to me:
12 NFL preview shows
11 pre season games watched
10 ESPN Insider visits
 9 days of playing Madden
 8 different football pools
 7 mornings of revisiting the history of football
 6 days of timing myself in the 40 yard dash (I'd rather not give my time)
 4 Fanatic Football friends
 3 Days of crying
 2 days of running around naked with a football in my hands
And one of the great prognosticators (um that's me), unravel the mystery which is 2012 NFL season

Have Nots:
I would love to hang out with Norv Turner, it's amazing how that guy keeps a job. I would ask him  "Norv, what do you say to team management year after year, when your team fails to play up to their potential? I mean I consistently don't play up to my potential in life and yet no one shales my hand and endorses me, how Norv, how do you do it". I have read several predictions where the Chargers are picked to win 12 games...huh, what? I think most of these articles have wrongfully assumed that Norv Turner has been fired, he hasn't, so stop picking that guy. The Jets have Tim Tebow and I will NEVER pick a team with Tebow on it as a playoff team. The Bengals will drop off in a rugged division, sophomore QB, sophomore receiver equals 8-8 record.

Something is wrong with the Dallas Cowboys, I'm not sure what it is. It's like looking at a good looking girl and just not feeling right about her, she wears shitty shoes that doesn't match her outfit, she's got a penis, a crazy shaven vagina something is off and that's how I see the 'Boys, super talented but a defect that I can't quite place where it comes from. Drew Brees is great but Roger Goodell took away key components of that Saints team, (you know like the head coach) in my opinion to keep them from making the playoffs, without actually admitting it, so for that reason I can't pick them. The Lions ain't no joke but that defense is overrated and no way they make all those great comebacks like they did last year. Now let's get it on:

It's sooo easy to pick the New England Patriots to win the AFC, they play in arguably the easiest division in the AFC, which means they should easily amass the best record in the conference, if not the league. Truth be told if Tom Brady had played like Tom Brady normally plays, they probably would be the reigning Champs right now. Brady got lucky against the Ravens being outplayed by Joe Flacco and he missed 2 clutch throws in the drive that could have iced the game late against the Giants in last years Super Bowl. They arguably have a better team than last year, with the help of the draft and acquisitions, it's an almost no-brainer to pick them to return back to the Super Bowl. However, they do have 1 thing working against them and it's the sole reason why I can't pick them. The Super Bowl runner-up syndrome. In recent years, teams that lose the Super Bowl don't come back with the same edge as they did the previous year. It just takes something out of them. Which is why I so deftly called the Denver Broncos upset last year against the Super Bowl runner-up Pittsburgh Steelers. Football is about having a mental edge as well as being physically prepared and there's no way that the Pats don't make the playoffs but they will stumble somewhere in the playoffs. I argued this point a couple of months ago with a good friend in a diner in LA late into the morning and I never argue that long unless I'm right, so book it!!!

I don't know about you but in the regular season , I never bet against Peyton Manning. Now I'm suppose to bet against Manning when he has a chip on his shoulder, ummm no thanks. He will lead his team to the playoffs cause that's what Manning does and if he doesn't, that only means he never fully recovered from his neck injury. I however do not fully believe that the Broncos, who will win about 10 games this year, can go on the road and win 2 road games to get to the SB, that being said, if Tebow can win 1 game in the playoffs with that team, then it wouldn't surprise me if Manning wins 3. Houston will easily walk thru to the playoffs where they play in a division that's way too young to compete with them. They will have confidence and not be an easy out for anyone, but Matt Schaub outplaying the QB's in this conference to make it to the SB?!!! Unlikely. I'm gonna take a flyer on the Bills as being a wild card team I think they will produce enough offensively to support the defense but they're one and done. You know who else I don't bet against Ray Lewis, that dude is a leader if he says he's gonna win, I believe him, right up until it's the AFC championship game and then not so much.

Which leads me to my AFC Super Bowl pick. It seems like I always pick them, but I just like Mike Tomlin and Ben Rothlisberger, it dosen't hurt that the Pittsburgh Steelers is the best run organization in football. They have mega talent at wide receiver which is what you need to be able to compete in the league right now, and now that Hines Ward has retired they'll be even better . They can run when they have too and their defense is stout. Throw in Big Ben who just wins year after year, Tomlin who is one of the best coaches in the game, along with having a chip on their shoulder from losing to Tim Tebow, it adds up to another SB visit.

I want to pick the Bears, I really, really do. I think the offense will be as good as it has been since that magical season in 1985. Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte makes up one of the best QB/WR/RB tandem in the NFL along with Houston's trio of Schaub, Andre Johnson and Arian Foster. However, Brian Urlacher is just to important for the Bears defensively. He's not the best player on their defense that distinction belongs to Julius Peppers, but for the way the Bears scheme defensively, he's their most important defensive player, which means the Bears defensively without a healthy Urlacher will be in the middle of the pack. Now I think the Bears will be great offensively but not as great as those fuckheads up north so I can't pick the Bears... but if Urlacher plays like Urlacher, we are right there, so close, so god damn close!!!

Hey the Giants will start out on fire, most SB champs do. That defensive pass rush they have can lead a team to the playoffs all by itself. They can be great at times and infuriatingly inconsistent at others, which is why I can't pick them as Super Bowl repeaters. The Falcons will turn the corner. With 2 studs at wide receivers, a very good QB, who will eventually stop choking (By the way did I mention how awful the nickname Matty Ice is) and a solid running game to boot, they will win their division and win 1 playoff game but the NFC is loaded son and that defense is not strong enough to carry them to the SB. I don't why Andy Reid is on the hot seat, he's one of the best coaches in the game and the fact that his team hasn't had great success in a couple of years is just the nature of football, however, I don't think Reid misses the playoffs 2 years in a row. Vick gets it done (to an extent) as they will win the division over the Giants and play in the NFC championship game and come up short, maybe against this team...

Why the Packers?!!! They have Aaron Rodgers, who is the best player in football right now. That's gotta count for something. He will win games when they are being outplayed and should lose, that's what great players do, they uneven the playing field. Why I'm not picking them to win?!!! When you win 15 games and lose at home in your 1st playoff game, like they did last year, it damages your pysche and remember boys and girls and girls who really are boys, football is about momentum. They will be great and definitely not an easy out but you gotta to be physically and mentally tough to win, like this team will be...

People say how poorly the Packers played against the Giants in last year's playoff game. Which is true, but may I remind you the Giants destroyed them last year 37-21, so that theory would hold more water if the game was close but you know who the Giants didn't destroy? The San Francisco 49ers, that was the most evenly matched game in the playoffs. An unfortunate special teams turnover decided that game in overtime. No I don't think that Alex Smith is great but neither was Brad Johnson or Trent Dilfer and they won Super Bowls. They have a superior defense, enough playmakers on offense (and yes I think Randy Moss at some point will make a difference for them) plus I really like Jim Harbaugh as a head coach. That team will be the hungriest and with teams being so equal in talent, I'm going with the ones that want that extra pancake boo.

Super Bowl predictions
I can't really take Alex Smith over Big Ben in the Super Bowl. I think when it's all said and done Rothlisberger is gonna go down as one of the best ever and that means winning 'Chips he's got 2 already and I see a third 17-13 Steelers!!!


P.S. You think I forgot
49ers +5.5
Lions -7
Bears over 43
Jets u 38.5