Friday, October 25, 2013

Hey boo, I'm back with winners for days

Hey, guess who got back on the winning track last week, with a solid but unspectacular 3-2 record. It's a start. Picking games is an art, you have to spot trends, factor significant injuries and trust your gut. Cause going head to head with Vegas oddsmakers is rough business. There are in my experince 2 advantages that a gambler holds over Vegas. One is knowledge of your favorite team. You ever see a football line and say to yourself, 'There's no way my fav team loses/win by that much in a given game'? It's because you have spent so many years with your team, you just know how they're going to play in a given situation. Secondly, Vegas work within a given parameter. Meaning they will only make a spread so many points. 2 weeks ago, the Broncos were favored by 28 points over Jacksonville which was the highest spread ever for a favored team, even though almost weekly there are games in which a team wins by more than 28 points. Vegas has to set an amount in which there will be an equal amount of points wagered for and against the set line, and they get 10% of all losses, that's how they make their money. So they set lines within their wheel house. However, sometimes there are games that just blows up the Vegas algorithm and they can't set a spread high or low enough in their wheel house to cover it and guess what boo...

Denver/Washington over 58 points
58 points is a lot of points in the NFL, 2 years ago 51 points used to be the benchmark for a high scoring game but now the game has changed. Teams are scoring more because rule changes has made defenses softer. Back in the day 58 points for an over/under NFL spread was unheard of. Not anymore. Vegas knows there will be a lot of points scored but no one has ever seen a 65 point over/under spread (which is what it should be) why? Because everyone would take the under and Vegas has protect themselves. Remeber they need equal betting on both sides, so they set it at 58 which is a number that bettors will feel comfortable with. Let me also say this, the Broncos are averaging about 35 points a game. The Washington blah blahs gave up 41 points to the Bears back up QB. RG3 is close to healthy, they're gonna score against a mediocre Denver Bronco team. 70 points will be scored in this game, trust me on this one boo *if there is a snowstorm in Denver then clearly this regard this wager (that's called a footnote homie) 
Broncos 45 - Blah blahs 35

Seattle - 11 over St. Louis
Hey did you know that the Rams called Brett Favre to see if he wants to come out of retirement to play for them? Yep, they called an over 40 year old dude who hasn't played in over 2 years to come and play for them immediately. Here's the thing, they didn't even deny it. Most teams would say 'no we are happy with the team we have' to show support for their QB, but not the Rams. They're basically saying that we have a shit QB and we're in big trouble and who am I to disagree with head coach Jeff Fisher, I mean he's in practice with them everyday, not me. I'm just the messenger boo
Seahawks 33 Rams 6

New Orleans -11 over Buffalo
Look the Saints are on a mission. Don't let that lucky Tom Brady semi-hail mary, make you lose faith. The Saints almost beat the Pats in New England with a subpar game from Drew Brees and no catches from super stud TE Jimmy Graham. They have 2 weeks to prepare for Buffalo QB Thad Lewis. The Saints will march and boo, boo...? They at home boo, the Saints are a different level team at home boo.
Saints 33 Bills 17

Atlanta +2.5 over Arizona
This is the perfect scenario for Matty Ice. He thrives in low expectation environments. The Falcons are no longer considered an elite team. They lost Julio Jones, they lost Roddy White. No pressure Ice-man. No need for you to melt yet again, in a pressure situation. You're playing a mediocre, over the hill Carson Palmer led team. You're not even favored to win. Go get 'em Matty Ice. Go get 'em Iceman
Falcons 24 Cardinals 23

Pittsburgh- 2.5 over Oakland
Um, I'm not saying the modest 2 game winning streak mean that the Steelers are back to their old selves. I am saying that they are a desperate team, with a little momentum and Ben Rothlisberger AND they are playing a not so good Oakland team. So if you're saying that they only need to win by a field goal to cover this spread. I say take this game my friend and don't look back. shhhh boo, don't turn around, keep straight.
Steelers 24 Oakland 14

Minnesota +9.5 over Green Bay
It's a perfect storm for the Vikings. They have to go back to Christian Ponder. He's going to give them his best effort. The Packers are incredibly banged up and can't score a lot of points.The Vikings still have an Adrian Peterson who ran over the Pack last year at home, keeping my beloved Bears out of the playoffs. That being said they'll still lose but not by 10
Rodgers 23 Ponder 16

San Francisco 16.5 over Jacksonville
I shouldn't have to explain myself here boo. I just shouldn't
49ers 41 Jaguars 10

Friday, October 18, 2013

Taming that killer wave known as the Dallas Cowboys Vegas style and other sure fire winners

I'm on an Adam Dunn like tear, but not t-e-a-r, but more like T-e-r as in Ter-rible. 2 wins 7 losses the last 2 weeks is equivalent to Dunn batting average tumbling 30 points in 2 weeks in August. Which means he went practically hitless. The good news is that I've been on an Eli Manning like playoff tear in baseball (see the analogy). Even though most prognosticators picked the Dodgers and Tigers I went with a process of elimination theory and settled on these 2 teams As of today it's looking pretty good for a Red Sox/Cardinals World series as both teams lead 3-2 in the LCS. The Colts laying an egg on Andrew Luck's 1st Monday night appearance was disappointing, along with the Bengals late meltdown against Buffalo and blah, blah, blah. The reality is that I'm shooter and the only way to get out of a slump is to keep shooting

Jacksonville + 8 over San Diego
You know it's sad when your team loses by 16 points and everyone is  excited about how you kept the game "competitive". I know Jacksonville is historically bad, but they're not gonna keep getting crushed every week by double digits. Home teams that are getting a touchdown or more generally fare well. Couple that with the fact that I'm still not sold on San Diego and a rejuvenated Philip Rivers. The Chargers will win, but that Monday night game makes people think they're better than they are. Take the Jags

Detroit -3 over Cincinnati
Here's a little vegas knowledge. The home team gets -3 points just for playing at home. Which means that Vegas thinks these teams are evenly matched. They may very well be, but Detroit at home is actually worth -6 points. So yeah Vegas, you fucked this up boo. The Bengals aren't closers and Matthew Stafford in the 2nd half closes. So if you have a gambling problem, take the Bengals in the 1st half and then go big with the Lions in the 2nd half and if you like prop bets go bananas that A.J. Green and Reggie Bush go ape shit. See if you eat bananas there's a chance you'll go ape sh... nevermind

49ers- 4.5 over Tennessee
The Titans have been covering spreads like they're playing to cover spreads and not actually win. Block kicks and crazy turnovers, they use blooper reels to cover spreads. No more I say. It's time that they just get an old fashioned butt whooping. The back to back weeks of the physicality of the Chiefs and Seahawks will take it's toll as another physical team comes in and wears them out. Plus Jake Locker is still out and I never thought I'd say this but he matters, he actually matters.

Dallas + 2.5 over Philadelphia
The Cowboys are 5-1 against the spread this year?!!! Yeah and it's spreads like this that keeps them coverin'. The Eagles defense is awful which means the Cowboys high powered offense will score lots of points. I know the hold-up though, Romo and the boys will disappoint, they always do. That is correct, they do always disappoint. Which means you're ready to jump the ship on the Jerry Joneses. Don't, remember they are underdogs here, so yeah they're gonna disappoint, cause they're gonna cover. You have to know how the ride the Cowboy wave baby, when you feel good about them, bet against them, when you feel bad about them, bet with them. They're basically just the football version of Murphy's law, anything that can go wrong will go wrong.

Green Bay- 10 over Cleveland
Brandon Wheedon is back as the Browns QB. I said Brandon Wheedon's back as the Browns QB. La di da la di da, la di da da da da dah. Brandon Wheedon is back as the Browns QB, time to swell your account with your bookie, cuz this game's a gimmie it's a cookie. La di da, la di d, la di da da da da dah. It's an awful jingle I know, but not as awful as Brandon Wheedon.

Catch Kevin Bozeman every Sunday morning from 10 til noon cst on the Mike North pre-game show and Sunday evenings on 10:15 cst and on the Mancow show every Wednesday and Thursday morning

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Friday, October 11, 2013

Kevin versus Vegas in a battle til the death

Well last week I went 1-3 at my Vegas picks could have very well been 1-4, if not for the Calvin Johnson injury nullifying the lions and Packers over/under. When I have a week that bad it's time to re-dedicate myself to the craft. Think Rocky IV, when he went to Russia and trained, in the mountains of the motherland. I too have done that, kinda, sorta. I went back to when I was a teenager, oblivious to vaginas and alcohol. Nothing but Oreo cookies, Doritos, and Grape Nehi soda pop, for this pimply 16 year old. Devouring sport magazines, sport trading cards and back pages of newspapers, consuming information and making myself the prodigy that I once was. Yeah, that's right mofo's I ignored alcohol and the remote thoughts of sex all while putting on 6 lbs of junk food weight, to make sure I nail this week  and here we go....

Minnesota -2.5 over Carolina
Look Cam Newton is not very good in close games. As a fantasy QB he's decent with his rushing touchdowns and he can pass for a lot of yards when he's playing from behind, but his winning percentage is atrocious. The Vikings on the other hand has a lot of things going for them. Christian Ponder is hurt. Matt Cassell is better than Christian Ponder. The Vikings just signed Josh Freeman who is better than Christian Ponder. Yeah a playoff team last year, with the best running back in the league has doubly upgraded their QB position, plays at home against a team who can't win close games, only have to win by a field goal. Don't forget Cassell has won, at New England and Kansas City, he's no scrub, he's just got some scrub tendencies. Like the girl that you wanna have sex with, then she wears that unflattering dress and you're like ew. Then the next week she amazingly pulls off a sweater dress and tights and you want to hit again. "Dammit out of my thoughts sexual activity, I got picks to make"

Philadelphia -1.5 over Tampa
Hey, hey, hey, you know the NFL needs is a good QB controversy. None of this Hoyer/Wheedon, Ponder/Cassell non-sense. They need an established starter with some serious Job security issues. That's exactly what they're gonna get, cuz truss me cuz, Nick Foles is about to have a very good game against the Buccaneers, yo!!! Watch yo back Mike Vick!!!  The Buccaneers doesn't have a QB in waiting, that's why they gave Josh Freeman so many chances. Now who's there starter Mike Glennon?!!! He sounds like a contestant who sings country music on American Idol, and I hate country music and I hate American Idol. Make no mistake The Eagles defense is awful, but a mistake free, 277 yard, 2 touchdown game will allow the Eagles to coast and make Vick a bit uneasy!!!!

Cincinnati/Buffalo u 41.5 
Well, in the league of explosive offenses, this game should keep the scoring barrage at a minimum. The Bills have a back-up QB playing and they like to run. Going against a Bengals team that's not very good at stopping run, which means the Bengals will stack the line of scrimmage, forcing the Bills to pass which they can't do. The Bengals has a home run threat in A.J. green and sure he'll hit one out of the park but that's just 7 points. That leaves them 35 points short of a cover. A.J. Dalton and company gets a lead of 10 or more, they play conservatively. Remember, A.J. is not there to win games, he's there to not lose 'em, trust me on this boo. 

Indianapolis -1.5 over San Diego
The Colts beat 2 of the top 5 teams in the league and the Chargers only 2 wins came against the NFC east arguably the most overrated division in the history of sports. Yeah that's right I said it. The NFC east has a total of 2 wins outside of their division , against the lowly Oakland Raiders and the lowly St. Louis Cardinals. The Chargers blew a big lead to Houston which we thought was a good team, beat a mediocre Eagles team due to poor clock management, and beat Dallas who loves to disappoint people. San Diego is that vodka in a skull bottle promoted by Dan Akroyd it looks like its really good, and why wouldn't it be, it's promoted by a ghost buster, but it's no Grey Goose son, it's no Grey Goose. " Arrrggghh stay out Alcohol,  I just want a club soda"

Colts/Chargers over 50
Oh they'll be some points scored in this one. A Monday night game to boot where both teams will be looking to shine. The Chargers and Raiders scored 44 points last week. Andrew Luck is at least good for 7 more points and the Chargers will play better offensively since they're at home. By halftime you'll feel reasonably secure about the outcome of this friendly little wager. As a bonus, if you have Danny Woodhead on your fantasy football team go ahead and start him, especially if its a PPR league. Ditto for Reggie Wayne and Philip Rivers. 

Now breathe... 5 picks, 5 sure winners and maybe, just maybe a celebratory cocktail and a light porn flick on Cinemax after Monday Night

Friday, October 4, 2013

This Blog is sponsored by Captain Obvious!!!

Here's simple math: (Bad attitude + bad play) / an alleged substance abuse problem = an unconditional release from football. 2 years ago the 1st of the new wave QB's to usher in the decade of 2010 was none other than Josh freeman. He could run and throw, future hall of famer without a doubt, but oh how he has fallen....HARD!!! He and Mark Sanchez has left Matthew Stafford on a deserted island for 2009 1st round QB's. Greg Schiano may very well be a bad coach, but you can't be 11-23 in your last 34 games AND be a team cancer. That's basic logic boo.

No one is more unlucky than Dusty Baker. He should have beaten the Angels, when he had the huge cranium, back acne, I hate white people, I have a white girl side piece, 70 home run belting dude on his team. He should have done something no one has done in over 100 years, if it weren't for the we'll blame Steve Bartman even though everyone in the area was reaching for the ball in the stands, idiot Cub fans. He probably wins it all if his team doesn't give away a 2-0 lead to the eventual champs, led by a rejuvenated, overpaid Barry Zito (The only time he's been relevant in the last 10 years is when he signed that overblown contract and last year's playoffs). Of course he's gonna get fired after 6 years with several playoff appearances and nothing to show for it. I would hire Dusty to be my manager for the regular season and then sit him out for the post season. That's the only way to attack a curse Dusty.

Michael Jordan said that he could beat LeBron James and a host of other people in a game of 1 on 1, duh!!! What the fuck do you expect the greatest player of all-time to say. He only gave Kobe a little bit of props, by back hand complimenting himself. "I may not be able to beat Kobe, cause he stole all of my moves" Ah, MJ, an egomaniac to the bitter end.

Even these Vegas lines are super obvious
Denver - 9 over Dallas
The spread started at 7.5 and it's up a point and a half. I think it's got a shot at going to 10. So, call your guy now. The Dallas Cowboys don't have the mental toughness to handle the 60 minute assault, that a Peyton Manning led team will put on you. A Tony Romo fumble here, a blown coverage there, a dropped TD by Dez Bryant here, a Jerry Jones pacing the sideline making his entire team uncomfortable there, can lead to a ton of points for the opposition.... 38-24

Denver/Dallas over 55
Hey did you know that 38 + 24 = 62. 62 > 55. hell yeah you can cheat off of my math test.

New England even, -1, +1, -2, + 2, -3, +3 over Cincinnati
This is the rule of thumb. Anytime Tom Brady is a 3 point favorite or less against an inferior QB ala Anthony Dalton. I take him. Atlanta - 2 with Matty Ice or the Patriots last week. sure thing. Tom Brady don't lose evenly matched games.

My beloved Bears +1 over the Saints
Everything lines up for the Bears in this one. The Bears can't win in the Super dome against Drew Brees but guess what they're at home. Drew Brees can't win in Soldier Field against Chicago. Check his record and then get back to me. Don't forget to throw in the fact that the Saints just played an emotionally charged Monday night home game and the Bears just got thumped on the road lowering confidence in them. Bears 31- Saints 24

Bears/Saints over 50
Hey did you know that 31 + 24 = 55, yeah and 55 is greater than what? Come on you can do it, you can do it. 55 > 50. Very good, now here's an Ice cream cone and a Scooby-Doo sticker for your fanny pack.

Lions/Packers over 55
Both of these teams may reach the 30's. I think Reggie Bush adds a dimension to the Lions that makes them hard to stop and I think Aaron Rodgers is just plain hard to stop. Nothing fancy, just stating the obvious.

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