Managing the Vegas lines for the last week of the season can be tricky, will teams play their starters, which teams have already mailed it in and which teams are willing to build a little momentum going into next year? All viable questions.
Lucky you, I have all the answers. Yes, I Kevin Bozeman, will break down every NFL game in week 17. Factoring in all of the necessary ingredients, emotions, teams history, the prior 16 weeks and a considerable amount of guess work. I've even labeled the sure locks all the way to the it can go either way categories.
Tennessee -7.5 over Houston over 44 pointsHas any teamed mailed a season in more than the Texans has... Ever?!!! They've lost 13 games in a row, while only covering twice. They have a 45 man roster and only J.J. Watts has not mailed it in.
Minnesota -2.5 over Detroit over 51.5 Speaking of mailing it in. The Lions, (my pre-season super sleeper) has folded like a nymphomaniac yoga instructor (everyone should have sex with one of those, at least once in their life). I don't care that All Day Peterson is out. The Lions are cowardly.
Miami -5.5 over N.Y. Jets under 41.5 The Dolphins are the prototypical NFL football team. Win against the Patriots and then stink up the joint against the Bills. They own the Jets though and no way are the Jets an 8-8 team.
Reasonably safe picks
New Orleans -12 over Tampa Bay under 48 The Saints have not clinched a playoff spot yet and they're at home, no way they meltdown against an underrated but still not very good Bucs team
Atlanta + 6.5 over Carolina under 45.5 The Falcons still has talent and they haven't stopped playing hard. Plus Carolina for the 1st time is playing as a favorite with a lot at stake.
Pittsburgh -7 over Cleveland under 44 The Steelers has a chance to get back to .500 after starting the season 0-4 and 2-6, with an outside chance of making the playoffs. Impressive!!!
Washington + 3.5 over N.Y. Giants under 46 Why would anyone think the Giants are more than 3 points better than any team in the NFL not named Houston?
Cincinnati -6.5 over Baltimore over 44 The Ravens lack of running game against the Bengals dominance at home will keep them out of the playoffs for the 1st time in 6 years
Dallas + 7 over Philadelphia over 51 I still haven't decided if losing Tony Romo is a good thing for the Cowboys. It's not, but Orton has some skill and they're at home so they'll keep it close
Jacksonville + 11 over Indianapolis over 45.5 The Colts going with Donald Brown is a good thing but They have way too many let down moments too trust a double digit victory
Kansas City + 10 over San Diego under 45 I don't care that the Chiefs are resting their starters. The Chargers just don't do things the easy way
51% chance of winning
Arizona + 1 against San Francisco over 42 It's only right that the NFL has a 11-5 team not make the playoffs while a 9-7 team does.
Oakland + 11.5 over Denver over 54.5 Though I will easily lock the Denver/Oakland over. I think a double digit home dog is a bit much for a Denver team, who's defense is below average.
New England -8.5 over Buffalo under 46.5 New England is just way too unpredictable to wager confidently on them. It's all I have to say about them
Seattle -11 over St. Louis under 43 the Rams played Seattle tough earlier this year and if Marshawn Lynch is gonna run buck wild then the Seahawks are a very mediocre offensive team
Last but not least
Bears versus Packers Aaron Rodgers is back, but surely he'll be a little rusty. The Bears defense is woeful against the run and Eddie Lacy is running like a healthy Marshawn Lynch, but as always it comes down to Jay Cutler and once again, perhaps for the last time. I will put my eggs in his basket... Bears + 3 over Green Bay under 52.5